| Miara dopasowania prognoz | ||||||||||||
| Data [kwartały] | PKB [mln złotych] | Prognoza PKB [mln złotych] | Błąd prognozy | Absolutny błąd prognozy | Kwadratowy błąd prognozy | Błąd procentowy | Absolutny błąd procentowy | Błąd skumulowany cząstkowy | Błąd skumulowany punktowy | |||
| 5% | ||||||||||||
| 2002.1 | 187,570.0 | |||||||||||
| 2002.2 | 197,917.5 | |||||||||||
| 2002.3 | 200,185.1 | |||||||||||
| 2002.4 | 222,186.9 | |||||||||||
| 2003.1 | 193,721.5 | 187,570.0 | 6,151.50 | 6151.50 | 37840952.25 | 3.28% | 3.28% | 1 | 6,151.50 | 3.28% | ||
| 2003.2 | 206,999.9 | 201,241.2 | 5,758.65 | 5758.65 | 33162089.55 | 2.86% | 2.86% | 1 | 11,910.15 | 6.14% | ||
| 2003.3 | 208,078.5 | 207,950.4 | 128.13 | 128.13 | 16416.94 | 0.06% | 0.06% | 1 | 12,038.28 | 6.20% | ||
| 2003.4 | 233,320.5 | 233,865.2 | -544.72 | 544.72 | 296716.30 | -0.23% | 0.23% | 1 | 11,493.57 | 5.97% | ||
| 2004.1 | 213,035.6 | 202,496.4 | 10,539.24 | 10539.24 | 111075577.11 | 5.20% | 5.20% | 0 | 22,032.81 | 11.17% | ||
| 2004.2 | 224,806.1 | 221,755.8 | 3,050.29 | 3050.29 | 9304241.08 | 1.38% | 1.38% | 1 | 25,083.09 | 12.55% | ||
| 2004.3 | 228,044.8 | 228,548.8 | -504.00 | 504.00 | 254016.51 | -0.22% | 0.22% | 1 | 24,579.09 | 12.33% | ||
| 2004.4 | 258,651.1 | 259,800.2 | -1,149.12 | 1149.12 | 1320484.40 | -0.44% | 0.44% | 1 | 23,429.97 | 11.89% | ||
| 2005.1 | 229,395.8 | 232,734.4 | -3,338.64 | 3338.64 | 11146543.65 | -1.43% | 1.43% | 1 | 20,091.32 | 10.45% | ||
| 2005.2 | 238,094.5 | 245,639.1 | -7,544.62 | 7544.62 | 56921359.88 | -3.07% | 3.07% | 1 | 12,546.70 | 7.38% | ||
| 2005.3 | 241,759.8 | 245,455.8 | -3,695.97 | 3695.97 | 13660159.96 | -1.51% | 1.51% | 1 | 8,850.73 | 5.88% | ||
| 2005.4 | 274,052.2 | 273,936.2 | 116.00 | 116.00 | 13455.23 | 0.04% | 0.04% | 1 | 8,966.73 | 5.92% | ||
| 2006.1 | 242,784.9 | 241,667.2 | 1,117.71 | 1117.71 | 1249276.18 | 0.46% | 0.46% | 1 | 10,084.44 | 6.38% | ||
| 2006.2 | 255,497.1 | 252,550.7 | 2,946.39 | 2946.39 | 8681231.57 | 1.17% | 1.17% | 1 | 13,030.83 | 7.55% | ||
| 2006.3 | 261,510.9 | 257,414.6 | 4,096.29 | 4096.29 | 16779585.30 | 1.59% | 1.59% | 1 | 17,127.12 | 9.14% | ||
| 2006.4 | 300,238.5 | 293,873.8 | 6,364.68 | 6364.68 | 40509211.11 | 2.17% | 2.17% | 1 | 23,491.81 | 11.30% | ||
| 2007.1 | 270,132.1 | 264,335.2 | 5,796.90 | 5796.90 | 33604021.26 | 2.19% | 2.19% | 1 | 29,288.70 | 13.50% | ||
| 2007.2 | 282,921.9 | 282,672.3 | 249.60 | 249.60 | 62299.24 | 0.09% | 0.09% | 1 | 29,538.30 | 13.59% | ||
| 2007.3 | 291,058.5 | 291,356.7 | -298.20 | 298.20 | 88924.00 | -0.10% | 0.10% | 1 | 29,240.10 | 13.48% | ||
| 2007.4 | 332,624.2 | 334,759.1 | -2,134.94 | 2134.94 | 4557987.19 | -0.64% | 0.64% | 1 | 27,105.16 | 12.85% | ||
| 2008.1 | 299,128.7 | 299,592.8 | -464.11 | 464.11 | 215393.76 | -0.15% | 0.15% | 1 | 26,641.05 | 12.69% | ||
| 2008.2 | 310,865.5 | 314,831.9 | -3,966.43 | 3966.43 | 15732598.25 | -1.26% | 1.26% | 1 | 22,674.62 | 11.43% | ||
| 2008.3 | 314,721.8 | 321,474.1 | -6,752.26 | 6752.26 | 45593078.10 | -2.10% | 2.10% | 1 | 15,922.35 | 9.33% | ||
| 2008.4 | 350,716.3 | 363,134.5 | -12,418.17 | 12418.17 | 154211065.70 | -3.42% | 3.42% | 1 | 3,504.18 | 5.91% | ||
| 2009.1 | 312,888.4 | 318,245.4 | -5,357.00 | 5357.00 | 28697428.45 | -1.68% | 1.68% | 1 | -1,852.82 | 4.23% | ||
| 2009.2 | 325,235.8 | 325,494.9 | -259.12 | 259.12 | 67145.65 | -0.08% | 0.08% | 1 | -2,111.94 | 4.15% | ||
| 2009.3 | 332,291.4 | 327,289.4 | 5,002.03 | 5002.03 | 25020296.29 | 1.53% | 1.53% | 1 | 2,890.08 | 5.68% | ||
| 2009.4 | 373,240.9 | 368,774.2 | 4,466.67 | 4466.67 | 19951139.58 | 1.21% | 1.21% | 1 | 7,356.75 | 6.89% | ||
| 2010.1 | 323,950.8 | 330,860.4 | -6,909.63 | 6909.63 | 47743020.50 | -2.09% | 2.09% | 1 | 447.12 | 4.80% | ||
| 2010.2 | 343,180.3 | 340,691.5 | 2,488.81 | 2488.81 | 6194189.20 | 0.73% | 0.73% | 1 | 2,935.93 | 5.53% | ||
| 2010.3 | 346,710.2 | |||||||||||
| l. dopuszczalnych | 29 | MAE | 3786.99 | |||||||||
| l. prognoz | 30 | MAPE | 1.41% | |||||||||
| współczynnik trafności prognoz | 96.67% | |||||||||||
| suma | 8,272,948.3 | 8,270,012.4 | 2,935.9 | 113,609.8 | 723,969,904.2 | 5.53% | 42.40% | |||||
| średnia | 275,764.9 | 275,667.1 | 97.9 | 3,787.0 | 24,132,330.1 | 0.18% | 1.41% | |||||
| wariancja | 2407784808.6 | 2588131170.0 | 24954571.7 | |||||||||
| odchylenie | 49069.2 | 50873.7 | 4995.5 | |||||||||
| Kompozycja Thaila | ||||||||||||
| średnia | wariancja | odchylenie | MSE | RMSE | Współczynnik zmienności prognoz | Współczynnik trafności prognoz | Pearson | Pierwsza | Druga | |||
| PKB | 275,764.9 | 2407784808.6 | 49069.2 | 24964479.5 | 4996.45 | 1.81% | 96.67% | 0.9957 | 0.1304 | |||
| Prognoza PKB | 275,667.1 | 2588131170.0 | 50873.7 | 0.8692 | ||||||||
| Błąd prognozy | 97.9 | 24954571.7 | 4995.5 | 0.0003969 | ||||||||
| k = 4 , j = 1 | k = 4 , j = 1 | k = 4 , j = 1 | |||||||||
| Data [kwartały] | PKB [mln złotych] | metoda średniej ruchomej | Błąd prognozy | Kwadratowy błąd prognozy | metoda wag | Błąd prognozy | Kwadratowy błąd prognozy | metoda wag liniowych | Błąd prognozy | Kwadratowy błąd prognozy | |
| 2002.1 | 187,570.0 | waga 1 | 0.1 | 0.10 | |||||||
| 2002.2 | 197,917.5 | waga 2 | 0.1 | 0.20 | |||||||
| 2002.3 | 200,185.1 | waga 3 | 0.3 | 0.30 | |||||||
| 2002.4 | 222,186.9 | waga 4 | 0.5 | 0.40 | |||||||
| 2003.1 | 193,721.5 | 201,964.9 | -8,243.4 | 67,953,231.4 | 209,697.7 | -15,976.2 | 255,239,925.0 | 207,270.8 | -13,549.3 | 183,583,259.5 | |
| 2003.2 | 206,999.9 | 203,502.8 | 3,497.2 | 12,230,058.1 | 203,327.1 | 3,672.8 | 13,489,606.8 | 203,973.4 | 3,026.5 | 9,159,460.1 | |
| 2003.3 | 208,078.5 | 205,773.4 | 2,305.2 | 5,313,716.5 | 203,853.6 | 4,224.9 | 17,849,780.0 | 205,372.3 | 2,706.2 | 7,323,518.4 | |
| 2003.4 | 233,320.5 | 207,746.7 | 25,573.8 | 654,019,246.4 | 207,730.1 | 25,590.4 | 654,870,619.4 | 206,294.4 | 27,026.1 | 730,412,243.3 | |
| 2004.1 | 213,035.6 | 210,530.1 | 2,505.5 | 6,277,530.3 | 219,155.9 | -6,120.3 | 37,458,561.7 | 216,523.9 | -3,488.3 | 12,168,097.4 | |
| 2004.2 | 224,806.1 | 215,358.6 | 9,447.5 | 89,254,783.9 | 218,021.8 | 6,784.3 | 46,026,862.2 | 217,526.1 | 7,280.0 | 52,998,691.2 | |
| 2004.3 | 228,044.8 | 219,810.2 | 8,234.6 | 67,809,048.9 | 220,453.6 | 7,591.2 | 57,625,862.0 | 221,305.1 | 6,739.7 | 45,423,960.5 | |
| 2004.4 | 258,651.1 | 224,801.8 | 33,849.4 | 1,145,778,495.4 | 226,099.8 | 32,551.3 | 1,059,584,527.6 | 224,598.9 | 34,052.2 | 1,159,550,962.8 | |
| 2005.1 | 229,395.8 | 231,134.4 | -1,738.6 | 3,022,730.0 | 241,523.2 | -12,127.4 | 147,072,860.6 | 238,138.7 | -8,742.9 | 76,437,601.0 | |
| 2005.2 | 238,094.5 | 235,224.5 | 2,870.1 | 8,237,187.0 | 237,578.3 | 516.2 | 266,441.8 | 237,443.2 | 651.3 | 424,165.6 | |
| 2005.3 | 241,759.8 | 238,546.6 | 3,213.3 | 10,324,975.6 | 236,535.6 | 5,224.2 | 27,292,474.6 | 238,591.2 | 3,168.6 | 10,039,772.5 | |
| 2005.4 | 274,052.2 | 241,975.3 | 32,076.9 | 1,028,927,513.6 | 241,112.9 | 32,939.3 | 1,084,994,849.3 | 239,876.5 | 34,175.7 | 1,167,975,736.4 | |
| 2006.1 | 242,784.9 | 245,825.6 | -3,040.7 | 9,245,704.5 | 256,303.1 | -13,518.2 | 182,740,920.1 | 252,707.3 | -9,922.4 | 98,454,021.8 | |
| 2006.2 | 255,497.1 | 249,172.9 | 6,324.3 | 39,996,138.1 | 251,593.5 | 3,903.6 | 15,237,780.7 | 251,491.0 | 4,006.1 | 16,048,596.8 | |
| 2006.3 | 261,510.9 | 253,523.5 | 7,987.4 | 63,798,558.8 | 252,165.2 | 9,345.7 | 87,341,734.7 | 254,020.7 | 7,490.2 | 56,102,646.6 | |
| 2006.4 | 300,238.5 | 258,461.3 | 41,777.2 | 1,745,336,528.7 | 259,088.3 | 41,150.2 | 1,693,339,783.0 | 257,215.7 | 43,022.8 | 1,850,962,180.3 | |
| 2007.1 | 270,132.1 | 265,007.9 | 5,124.3 | 26,257,938.1 | 278,400.7 | -8,268.6 | 68,370,076.7 | 273,926.6 | -3,794.5 | 14,398,078.5 | |
| 2007.2 | 282,921.9 | 271,844.7 | 11,077.3 | 122,705,467.6 | 276,838.4 | 6,083.5 | 37,008,972.3 | 275,976.3 | 6,945.6 | 48,241,637.2 | |
| 2007.3 | 291,058.5 | 278,700.9 | 12,357.7 | 152,711,513.5 | 278,675.5 | 12,383.0 | 153,338,193.7 | 280,407.2 | 10,651.3 | 113,450,617.7 | |
| 2007.4 | 332,624.2 | 286,087.8 | 46,536.5 | 2,165,641,178.6 | 287,442.9 | 45,181.3 | 2,041,351,676.9 | 285,350.2 | 47,274.0 | 2,234,827,294.1 | |
| 2008.1 | 299,147.7 | 294,184.2 | 4,963.5 | 24,636,580.4 | 308,935.1 | -9,787.4 | 95,792,220.0 | 303,964.8 | -4,817.1 | 23,204,645.1 | |
| 2008.2 | 310,884.3 | 301,438.1 | 9,446.2 | 89,231,166.8 | 306,759.2 | 4,125.1 | 17,016,862.5 | 305,950.2 | 4,934.1 | 24,345,046.8 | |
| 2008.3 | 314,741.7 | 308,428.7 | 6,313.0 | 39,854,284.7 | 307,554.7 | 7,187.0 | 51,652,537.8 | 309,728.7 | 5,013.0 | 25,129,968.5 | |
| 2008.4 | 350,734.6 | 314,349.5 | 36,385.1 | 1,323,877,321.3 | 313,813.3 | 36,921.3 | 1,363,180,178.4 | 312,253.9 | 38,480.7 | 1,480,761,963.6 | |
| 2009.1 | 313,058.1 | 318,877.1 | -5,819.0 | 33,860,470.1 | 330,793.0 | -17,734.9 | 314,527,032.7 | 326,808.0 | -13,749.9 | 189,059,200.0 | |
| 2009.2 | 325,485.6 | 322,354.7 | 3,130.9 | 9,802,691.4 | 324,312.0 | 1,173.6 | 1,377,266.5 | 324,480.4 | 1,005.2 | 1,010,447.1 | |
| 2009.3 | 332,478.9 | 326,005.0 | 6,473.9 | 41,911,381.2 | 323,207.9 | 9,271.0 | 85,952,182.7 | 325,732.8 | 6,746.1 | 45,510,404.9 | |
| 2009.4 | 373,482.5 | 330,439.3 | 43,043.2 | 1,852,717,066.2 | 330,264.4 | 43,218.1 | 1,867,804,167.6 | 328,322.3 | 45,160.2 | 2,039,441,857.6 | |
| 2010.1 | 323,206.6 | 336,126.3 | -12,919.7 | 166,918,002.1 | 350,339.3 | -27,132.7 | 736,182,866.6 | 345,539.6 | -22,333.0 | 498,762,889.0 | |
| 2010.2 | 344,700.0 | 338,663.4 | 6,036.6 | 36,440,539.6 | 339,444.5 | 5,255.5 | 27,620,280.3 | 340,371.7 | 4,328.3 | 18,733,921.2 | |
| 2010.3 | 350,607.2 | 343,467.0 | 7,140.2 | 50,982,456.0 | 339,908.1 | 10,699.1 | 114,470,312.8 | 342,786.4 | 7,820.8 | 61,165,381.9 | |
| 2010.4 | 398,071.5 | 347,999.1 | 50,072.4 | 2,507,247,745.4 | 348,382.5 | 49,689.0 | 2,468,995,727.2 | 345,642.5 | 52,429.1 | 2,748,805,283.9 | |
| 2011.1 | 348,537.6 | 354,146.3 | -5,608.7 | 31,457,796.1 | 371,008.6 | -22,471.0 | 504,944,492.7 | 365,671.4 | -17,133.8 | 293,567,787.8 | |
| 2011.2 | 368,884.7 | 360,479.1 | 8,405.6 | 70,654,531.6 | 363,221.0 | 5,663.7 | 32,077,837.5 | 363,427.9 | 5,456.8 | 29,776,338.8 | |
| 2011.3 | 375,355.6 | 366,525.3 | 8,830.3 | 77,975,081.1 | 363,871.5 | 11,484.1 | 131,884,552.8 | 366,790.2 | 8,565.4 | 73,366,419.8 | |
| 2011.4 | 430,467.4 | 372,712.4 | 57,755.1 | 3,335,645,800.5 | 373,004.1 | 57,463.3 | 3,302,028,548.4 | 370,322.3 | 60,145.1 | 3,617,430,648.2 | |
| 2012.1 | 370,721.0 | 380,811.3 | -10,090.3 | 101,814,658.6 | 399,582.6 | -28,861.6 | 832,992,531.8 | 393,424.3 | -22,703.3 | 515,441,647.2 | |
| 2012.2 | 388,258.0 | 386,357.2 | 1,900.8 | 3,613,135.7 | 388,924.8 | -666.8 | 444,555.6 | 389,388.2 | -1,130.2 | 1,277,374.6 | |
| 2012.3 | 392,078.0 | 391,200.5 | 877.5 | 770,006.3 | 385,927.6 | 6,150.4 | 37,827,420.2 | 390,148.5 | 1,929.5 | 3,722,815.9 | |
| 2012.4 | 444,826.0 | 395,381.1 | 49,444.9 | 2,444,798,136.0 | 392,635.2 | 52,190.8 | 2,723,875,429.4 | 390,499.5 | 54,326.5 | 2,951,364,256.1 | |
| 2013.1 | 398,970.8 | -398,970.8 | 159,177,659,355.6 | 415,934.3 | -415,934.3 | 173,001,341,916.5 | 410,277.5 | -410,277.5 | 168,327,627,006.3 | ||
| MSE | 504334625.532068 | MSE | 574132013.143377 | MSE | 577688739.481788 | ||||||
| RMSE | 22457.3957869578 | RMSE | 23961.052004104 | RMSE | 24035.1563232234 | ||||||
| V | 5.63% | V | 5.76% | V | 5.86% |
| pkb [mln zł] | mt | dt | pt | PROGNOZA | błąd prognozy | błąd kwadratowy | zoptymalizowane (obliczone przy pomocy solver) | alfa | 0.300000 | |||
| 2007.10 | 270,132.10 | -24,052.08 | beta | 0.400000 | ||||||||
| 2007.20 | 282,921.90 | -11,262.28 | gamma | 0.800000 | ||||||||
| 2007.30 | 291,058.50 | -3,125.67 | j | 1.000000 | ||||||||
| 2007.40 | 332,624.20 | 38,440.03 | ||||||||||
| 2008.10 | 299,147.70 | 294,184.18 | 0.00 | -839.59 | nasze założenie | alfa | 0.3 | |||||
| 2008.20 | 310,884.30 | 302,572.90 | 3,355.49 | 4,396.67 | 282,921.90 | 27,962.40 | 781,895,813.76 | beta | 0.4 | |||
| 2008.30 | 314,741.70 | 309,510.08 | 4,788.17 | 3,560.16 | 302,802.71 | 11,938.99 | 142,539,529.98 | gamma | 0.8 | |||
| 2008.40 | 350,734.60 | 313,697.15 | 4,547.73 | 37,317.97 | 352,738.27 | -2,003.67 | 4,014,704.05 | |||||
| 2009.10 | 313,058.10 | 316,940.72 | 4,026.07 | -3,274.01 | 317,405.28 | -4,347.18 | 18,897,949.36 | |||||
| 2009.20 | 325,485.60 | 321,003.43 | 4,040.72 | 4,465.07 | 325,363.45 | 122.15 | 14,919.87 | |||||
| 2009.30 | 332,478.90 | 326,206.53 | 4,505.67 | 5,729.93 | 328,604.31 | 3,874.59 | 15,012,437.05 | |||||
| 2009.40 | 373,482.50 | 332,347.90 | 5,159.95 | 40,371.27 | 368,030.17 | 5,452.33 | 29,727,912.36 | |||||
| 2010.10 | 323,206.60 | 334,199.68 | 3,836.68 | -9,449.27 | 334,233.84 | -11,027.24 | 121,599,996.93 | |||||
| 2010.20 | 344,700.00 | 338,695.93 | 4,100.51 | 5,696.27 | 342,501.44 | 2,198.56 | 4,833,678.97 | |||||
| 2010.30 | 350,607.20 | 343,420.69 | 4,350.21 | 6,895.19 | 348,526.38 | 2,080.82 | 4,329,825.39 | |||||
| 2010.40 | 398,071.50 | 350,749.70 | 5,541.73 | 45,931.69 | 388,142.18 | 9,929.32 | 98,591,436.94 | |||||
| 2011.10 | 348,537.60 | 356,800.06 | 5,745.18 | -8,499.82 | 346,842.16 | 1,695.44 | 2,874,509.00 | |||||
| 2011.20 | 368,884.70 | 362,738.20 | 5,822.36 | 6,056.45 | 368,241.51 | 643.19 | 413,693.38 | |||||
| 2011.30 | 375,355.60 | 368,530.52 | 5,810.35 | 6,839.10 | 375,455.76 | -100.16 | 10,031.29 | |||||
| 2011.40 | 430,467.40 | 377,399.32 | 7,033.73 | 51,640.81 | 420,272.56 | 10,194.84 | 103,934,799.49 | |||||
| 2012.10 | 370,117.70 | 382,688.39 | 6,335.86 | -11,756.51 | 375,933.22 | -5,815.52 | 33,820,282.39 | |||||
| 2012.20 | 389,122.40 | 387,236.76 | 5,620.87 | 2,719.80 | 395,080.70 | -5,958.30 | 35,501,396.17 | |||||
| 2012.30 | 393,792.40 | 391,086.33 | 4,912.35 | 3,532.68 | 399,696.73 | -5,904.33 | 34,861,135.62 | |||||
| 2012.40 | 442,231.40 | 394,376.25 | 4,263.38 | 48,612.28 | 447,639.48 | -5,408.08 | 29,247,352.89 | |||||
| 386,883.12 | MSE | 81,228,966.94 | ||||||||||
| Winters Addytywny | AA | RMS | 9,012.71 | |||||||||
| pkb [mln zł] | mt | dt | pt | PROGNOZA | błąd prognozy | błąd kwadratowy | zoptymalizowane (obliczone przy pomocy solver) | alfa | 0.386131 | |||
| 2007.10 | 270,132.10 | 0.9182 | beta | 0.301791 | ||||||||
| 2007.20 | 282,921.90 | 0.9617 | gamma | 0.529663 | ||||||||
| 2007.30 | 291,058.50 | 0.9894 | j | 1.000000 | ||||||||
| 2007.40 | 332,624.20 | 1.1307 | ||||||||||
| 2008.10 | 299,147.70 | 294,184.18 | 1.00 | 0.9705 | nasze założenie | alfa | 0.2 | |||||
| 2008.20 | 310,884.30 | 305,411.13 | 1.01 | 0.9915 | 282,921.90 | 27,962.40 | 781,895,813.76 | beta | 0.3 | |||
| 2008.30 | 314,741.70 | 312,478.36 | 1.02 | 0.9988 | 305,646.29 | 9,095.41 | 82,726,480.26 | gamma | 0.4 | |||
| 2008.40 | 350,734.60 | 314,481.33 | 1.01 | 1.1225 | 358,617.25 | -7,882.65 | 62,136,239.65 | |||||
| 2009.10 | 313,058.10 | 320,007.07 | 1.01 | 0.9746 | 308,990.72 | 4,067.38 | 16,543,597.12 | |||||
| 2009.20 | 325,485.60 | 325,947.61 | 1.02 | 0.9952 | 321,717.50 | 3,768.10 | 14,198,578.59 | |||||
| 2009.30 | 332,478.90 | 331,692.50 | 1.02 | 1.0007 | 330,570.61 | 1,908.29 | 3,641,553.29 | |||||
| 2009.40 | 373,482.50 | 335,355.84 | 1.01 | 1.1178 | 378,304.37 | -4,821.87 | 23,250,472.86 | |||||
| 2010.10 | 323,206.60 | 336,907.60 | 1.01 | 0.9665 | 331,593.82 | -8,387.22 | 70,345,408.22 | |||||
| 2010.20 | 344,700.00 | 342,940.24 | 1.01 | 1.0005 | 339,176.80 | 5,523.20 | 30,505,740.16 | |||||
| 2010.30 | 350,607.20 | 348,639.33 | 1.01 | 1.0033 | 347,804.62 | 2,802.58 | 7,854,444.16 | |||||
| 2010.40 | 398,071.50 | 354,608.36 | 1.02 | 1.1203 | 395,342.04 | 2,729.46 | 7,449,929.27 | |||||
| 2011.10 | 348,537.60 | 360,241.92 | 1.02 | 0.9670 | 347,957.19 | 580.41 | 336,877.25 | |||||
| 2011.20 | 368,884.70 | 366,922.87 | 1.02 | 1.0031 | 365,976.57 | 2,908.13 | 8,457,193.47 | |||||
| 2011.30 | 375,355.60 | 373,386.22 | 1.02 | 1.0044 | 374,168.97 | 1,186.63 | 1,408,091.38 | |||||
| 2011.40 | 430,467.40 | 381,410.85 | 1.02 | 1.1247 | 425,326.31 | 5,141.09 | 26,430,815.16 | |||||
| 2012.10 | 370,117.70 | 386,176.66 | 1.02 | 0.9625 | 375,546.18 | -5,428.48 | 29,468,341.05 | |||||
| 2012.20 | 389,122.40 | 390,758.75 | 1.02 | 0.9992 | 393,734.82 | -4,612.42 | 21,274,463.77 | |||||
| 2012.30 | 393,792.40 | 394,886.77 | 1.01 | 1.0006 | 398,377.76 | -4,585.36 | 21,025,509.26 | |||||
| 2012.40 | 442,231.40 | 397,556.00 | 1.01 | 1.1182 | 450,230.71 | -7,999.31 | 63,988,880.58 | |||||
| 397,557.97 | MSE | 70,718,801.63 | ||||||||||
| Winters Multiplikatywny | MA | RMS | 8,409.45 | |||||||||
| pkb [mln zł] | mt | dt | pt | PROGNOZA | błąd prognozy | błąd kwadratowy | zoptymalizowane (obliczone przy pomocy solver) | alfa | 0.377308 | |||
| 2007.10 | 270,132.10 | 0.9182 | beta | 0.337978 | ||||||||
| 2007.20 | 282,921.90 | 0.9617 | gamma | 0.525024 | ||||||||
| 2007.30 | 291,058.50 | 0.9894 | j | 1.000000 | ||||||||
| 2007.40 | 332,624.20 | 1.1307 | ||||||||||
| 2008.10 | 299,147.70 | 294,184.18 | 0.00 | 0.9700 | nasze założenie | alfa | 0.2 | |||||
| 2008.20 | 310,884.30 | 305,154.59 | 3,707.76 | 0.9917 | 282,921.90 | 27,962.40 | 781,895,813.76 | beta | 0.3 | |||
| 2008.30 | 314,741.70 | 312,355.98 | 4,888.53 | 0.9990 | 305,580.72 | 9,160.98 | 83,923,469.27 | gamma | 0.4 | |||
| 2008.40 | 350,734.60 | 314,587.18 | 3,990.41 | 1.1224 | 358,697.75 | -7,963.15 | 63,411,780.54 | |||||
| 2009.10 | 313,058.10 | 320,145.08 | 4,520.19 | 0.9741 | 309,028.20 | 4,029.90 | 16,240,074.26 | |||||
| 2009.20 | 325,485.60 | 326,005.81 | 4,973.26 | 0.9952 | 321,962.28 | 3,523.32 | 12,413,794.91 | |||||
| 2009.30 | 332,478.90 | 331,675.13 | 5,208.51 | 1.0008 | 330,636.00 | 1,842.90 | 3,396,276.87 | |||||
| 2009.40 | 373,482.50 | 335,326.31 | 4,682.17 | 1.1179 | 378,115.17 | -4,632.67 | 21,461,635.84 | |||||
| 2010.10 | 323,206.60 | 336,906.27 | 3,633.69 | 0.9664 | 331,215.93 | -8,009.33 | 64,149,413.74 | |||||
| 2010.20 | 344,700.00 | 342,735.84 | 4,375.85 | 1.0007 | 338,908.03 | 5,791.97 | 33,546,938.52 | |||||
| 2010.30 | 350,607.20 | 348,327.47 | 4,786.76 | 1.0038 | 347,382.43 | 3,224.77 | 10,399,117.00 | |||||
| 2010.40 | 398,071.50 | 354,239.58 | 5,167.10 | 1.1210 | 394,737.33 | 3,334.17 | 11,116,656.73 | |||||
| 2011.10 | 348,537.60 | 359,882.42 | 5,327.89 | 0.9675 | 347,319.16 | 1,218.44 | 1,484,603.51 | |||||
| 2011.20 | 368,884.70 | 366,494.79 | 5,762.01 | 1.0038 | 365,477.87 | 3,406.83 | 11,606,459.49 | |||||
| 2011.30 | 375,355.60 | 372,888.93 | 5,975.66 | 1.0053 | 373,673.85 | 1,681.75 | 2,828,281.30 | |||||
| 2011.40 | 430,467.40 | 380,809.64 | 6,633.05 | 1.1259 | 424,688.81 | 5,778.59 | 33,392,066.97 | |||||
| 2012.10 | 370,117.70 | 385,600.60 | 6,010.46 | 0.9635 | 374,841.10 | -4,723.40 | 22,310,536.76 | |||||
| 2012.20 | 389,122.40 | 390,120.39 | 5,506.65 | 1.0004 | 393,088.09 | -3,965.69 | 15,726,660.76 | |||||
| 2012.30 | 393,792.40 | 394,154.27 | 5,008.88 | 1.0020 | 397,716.39 | -3,923.99 | 15,397,710.89 | |||||
| 2012.40 | 442,231.40 | 396,753.23 | 4,194.38 | 1.1200 | 449,422.74 | -7,191.34 | 51,715,400.39 | |||||
| 386,301.11 | MSE | 69,800,927.31 | ||||||||||
| Metoda mieszana | RMS | 8,354.69 | ||||||||||
| pkb [mln zł] | mt | dt | pt | PROGNOZA | błąd prognozy | błąd kwadratowy | zoptymalizowane (obliczone przy pomocy solver) | alfa | 0.471901 | |||
| 2007.10 | 270,132.10 | -24,052.0750 | beta | 0.271367 | ||||||||
| 2007.20 | 282,921.90 | -11,262.2750 | gamma | 0.262031 | ||||||||
| 2007.30 | 291,058.50 | -3,125.6750 | j | 1.000000 | ||||||||
| 2007.40 | 332,624.20 | 38,440.0250 | ||||||||||
| 2008.10 | 299,147.70 | 294,184.18 | 0.0000 | -16,449.0883 | nasze założenie | alfa | 0.2 | |||||
| 2008.20 | 310,884.30 | 307,379.66 | 0.2835 | -7,392.8854 | -3,313,183,079.50 | 3,313,493,963.80 | 10,979,242,248,126,500,000.00 | beta | 0.3 | |||
| 2008.30 | 314,741.70 | 312,328.97 | 0.4823 | -1,674.4419 | -960,769,803.53 | 961,084,545.23 | 923,683,503,077,143,000.00 | gamma | 0.4 | |||
| 2008.40 | 350,734.60 | 312,313.00 | 0.6228 | 38,435.1984 | 12,005,952,058.94 | -12,005,601,324.34 | 144,134,463,158,919,000,000.00 | |||||
| 2009.10 | 313,058.10 | 320,427.28 | 0.7322 | -14,069.8711 | -5,137,274,283.19 | 5,137,587,341.29 | 26,394,803,689,403,000,000.00 | |||||
| 2009.20 | 325,485.60 | 326,303.40 | 0.8099 | -5,670.0101 | -2,368,887,570.92 | 2,369,213,056.52 | 5,613,170,507,199,030,000.00 | |||||
| 2009.30 | 332,478.90 | 330,008.22 | 0.8645 | -588.2928 | -546,377,447.52 | 546,709,926.42 | 298,891,743,648,220,000.00 | |||||
| 2009.40 | 373,482.50 | 332,386.63 | 0.9033 | 39,132.3776 | 12,683,964,815.54 | -12,683,591,333.04 | 160,873,489,103,524,000,000.00 | |||||
| 2010.10 | 323,206.60 | 334,694.63 | 0.9314 | -13,393.3477 | -4,676,649,708.46 | 4,676,972,915.06 | 21,874,075,648,190,600,000.00 | |||||
| 2010.20 | 344,700.00 | 342,092.35 | 0.9560 | -3,501.0059 | -1,897,727,186.01 | 1,898,071,886.01 | 3,602,676,884,478,110,000.00 | |||||
| 2010.30 | 350,607.20 | 346,388.64 | 0.9714 | 671.2528 | -201,251,013.55 | 201,601,620.75 | 40,643,213,489,185,600.00 | |||||
| 2010.40 | 398,071.50 | 352,311.74 | 0.9838 | 40,868.9584 | 13,555,048,913.58 | -13,554,650,842.08 | 183,728,559,450,651,000,000.00 | |||||
| 2011.10 | 348,537.60 | 356,851.57 | 0.9917 | -12,062.3936 | -4,718,646,760.82 | 4,718,995,298.42 | 22,268,916,626,503,500,000.00 | |||||
| 2011.20 | 368,884.70 | 364,182.67 | 0.9995 | -1,351.5558 | -1,249,342,912.06 | 1,249,711,796.76 | 1,561,779,574,973,570,000.00 | |||||
| 2011.30 | 375,355.60 | 369,138.95 | 1.0033 | 2,124.3190 | 244,459,310.22 | -244,083,954.62 | 59,576,976,902,504,700.00 | |||||
| 2011.40 | 430,467.40 | 378,794.33 | 1.0095 | 43,699.9695 | 15,086,365,339.33 | -15,085,934,871.93 | 227,585,430,960,233,000,000.00 | |||||
| 2012.10 | 370,117.70 | 380,392.61 | 1.0081 | -11,594.0176 | -4,569,178,519.56 | 4,569,548,637.26 | 20,880,774,748,305,400,000.00 | |||||
| 2012.20 | 389,122.40 | 385,150.54 | 1.0093 | 43.3442 | -514,123,193.45 | 514,512,315.85 | 264,722,923,158,228,000.00 | |||||
| 2012.30 | 393,792.40 | 388,226.71 | 1.0089 | 3,026.0657 | 818,184,767.64 | -817,790,975.24 | 668,782,079,188,035,000.00 | |||||
| 2012.40 | 442,231.40 | 393,090.05 | 1.0099 | 45,125.7801 | 16,965,539,346.84 | -16,965,097,115.44 | 287,814,520,136,381,000,000.00 | |||||
| -4,557,504,648.97 | MSE | 62,198,233,509,797,300,000.00 | ||||||||||
| Metoda mieszana | RMS | 7,886,585,668.70 | ||||||||||