Director’s Update Brief
Friday
05 JUN 2009 1100 EDT
Day 48
The Week of IPRs
Director’s Update Brief
Friday
05 JUN 2009 1100 EDT
Day 48
The Week of IPRs
Internal Use Only (FIUO)---For Official Use Only (FOUO)
NOT FOR FURTHER DISTRIBUTION
-Sensitive But Unclassified (SBU) 2
Situation Awareness
05 JUN 2009
•
Severe Weather:
– No cyclone activity, any region
– Large fire in McGrath, Alaska 41% contained
– Severe thunderstorms possible across most of the West and
Upper Midwest
– Flooding possible in the Middle Atlantic Region
(FEMA Daily Report 4 June 2009)
•
Recalls:
– In-shell pistachios possibly contaminated with
Salmonella
(FDA Recall Report 4 June 2009)
•
Polio (Wild Type)
– Asia (UPDATE) -10 new cases
– Africa (UPDATE) - 21 new cases
(GDD Ops Center Daily Report 4 June 2009)
Internal Use Only (FIUO)---For Official Use Only (FOUO)
NOT FOR FURTHER DISTRIBUTION
-Sensitive But Unclassified (SBU) 3
Key Events
Novel Influenza A (H1N1) 05 JUN 2009
•
Novel Influenza A (H1N1) Declarations
–
WHO: Pandemic Phase 5 (29 Apr 1600 EDT)
–
USG: Public Health Emergency declared (26 Apr 2009)
–
HHS: Downgraded to Phase 1 – Awareness (9 May 2009)
•
International Cases: 19,273 confirmed cases in 66 countries*
–
4 new countries: Bulgaria, Lebanon, Egypt, Nicaragua
•
Deployments: 9
•
US Cases: As of 05 JUN 2009 0100 EDT (all states reporting cases)
Cases
Hosp
Deaths
13,217
1,027
27
52
41
10
SLTTs AFFECTED
US TOTALS
CASES
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Epidemiology/Surveillance
Descriptive Statistics of Novel Influenza A (H1N1) Cases Reported to CDC
by States-As of 05 JUN 2009 1100 EDT (n=13,217)
•
Secondary attack rate in household contacts:
– ARI—19%
– ILI—12%
•
Generation time:
– ARI—2.0-3.1 days
– ILI—2.4-3.1 days
•
Hospitalizations: 1,027 (7.8%)
•
Deaths: 27 (0.20%) in 10 states
Epidemiology/Surveillance
Number of Novel Influenza A (H1N1) Cases Reported to CDC by State
As of 05 JUN 2009 1100 EDT (n=13,217)
200-400
51-200
1-50
0
400-1000
>1000
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Epidemiology/Surveillance
Confirmed and Probable Novel Influenza A (H1N1) Cases by Report Date
As of 05 JUN 2009 1100 EDT (n=13,217) (Weekly*)
*Data for week ending 06 JUN 2009 include reports submitted between 5/31/2009 0001 EDT and 6/04/2009 1159 EDT
0
0
5
19
915
2,144
1,879
1,710
3,289
3,164
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
28
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16
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23
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30
-M
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6-
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Week Ending Date
C
a
se
s
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NOT FOR FURTHER DISTRIBUTION
-Sensitive But Unclassified (SBU) 7
*Data for week ending 06 Jun 2009 include reports submitted between 8:00 AM EDT 5/31/2009 and 5:00 PM 6/04/2009.
3
2
1
51
65
83
114
336
374
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
11
-A
pr
18
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25
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2-M
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9-
M
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16
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23
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30
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6-
Ju
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Week Ending Date
H
o
s
p
it
a
li
z
a
ti
o
n
n
Epidemiology/Surveillance
Confirmed and Probable Novel Influenza A (H1N1) Hospitalizations
by Report Date
As of 05 JUN 2009 1100 EDT (n=1,027) (Weekly*)
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Epidemiology/Surveillance
Confirmed and Probable Novel Influenza A (H1N1) Cases by Age
Data reported as of 05 JUN 2009 1100 EDT (n=13,217)
1,265
7,502
2,327
98
2,025
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
C
o
n
fi
rm
e
d
a
n
d
P
ro
b
a
b
le
C
a
s
e
s
0-4 Yrs
5-24 Yrs 25-64 Yrs
≥65 Yrs Unknown
Age Groups
10%
57%
18%
1%
15%
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Epidemiology/Surveillance
Confirmed and Probable Novel Influenza A (H1N1) Hospitalizations by Age
Data reported as of 05 JUN 2009 1100 EDT (n=1,027)
184
421
353
39
30
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
C
o
n
fi
rm
e
d
a
n
d
P
ro
b
a
b
le
C
a
se
s
0-4 Yrs
5-24 Yrs 25-64 Yrs
≥65 Yrs Unknown
Age Groups
41%
34%
4%
3%
18%
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-Sensitive But Unclassified (SBU) 10
Confirmed and Probable Novel Influenza A (H1N1) Deaths by Age
Data Reported as of 05 JUN 2009 1100 EDT (n=27)
3
6
17
1
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
C
o
n
fi
rm
e
d
a
n
d
P
ro
b
a
b
le
C
a
s
e
s
0-4 Yrs
5-24 Yrs
25-64 Yrs
≥65 Yrs Unknown
Age Groups
61%
4%
0%
States:
AZ - 4
CT - 1
IL - 5
MI - 1
MO - 1
NY – 8*
TX - 3
UT - 2
VA - 1
WA - 1
*7 in NYC
63%
22%
11%
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International
Novel Influenza A (H1N1) 05 JUN 2009
•
WHO global case count
: 19,273 confirmed cases in 66 countries*
–
4 new countries with confirmed cases in last 3 days:
Bulgaria, Lebanon, Egypt, Nicaragua
• Case in Egypt is 1
st
in Africa (12 yo American girl visiting family)
–
Novel flu activity in North America:
•
Mexico
: 5,029 confirmed cases and 97 deaths (= in last 3 days)
– Update on Mexico novel H1N1 in this week’s MMWR
» Outbreak likely peaked nationally in late April, although
localized transmission continues to occur
•
Canada
: 1,530 ( 194 in last 3 days)
– Recent jump (~600 cases this week) is primarily from Ontario
» Recent community transmission (latest onset 5/27) plus a
testing backlog of cases contributing to rise
•
*Note: WHO case counts are current as of 06/05/09, 6:00 am EDT.
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• 18 schools closed due to H1N1 in 6 states today: FL, MA, NJ, NY, PA, and TX
• The closures impacted 6520 students and 542 teachers
• 3 schools reopened in MA, NJ, and NY affecting 2841 students and 232 teachers
Source: ED and CDC Confirmed School Closing Reports released each weekday at 2:00pm
169,000
245,449
6520
8058
11186
468,282
9662
9628
8075
55,765
13933
49,893
42052
4838
61697
118,033
197,985
369,237
329,834
104
298
433
533
726
589
318
166
5
13
24
36
60
78
32
29
14
18
17
22
17
18
75
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
28
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29
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15
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18
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19
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20
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21
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22
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26
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27
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28
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29
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1-
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2-
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3-
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4-
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Date
S
tu
d
en
ts
A
ff
e
ct
ed
(
R
e
d
)
-100
100
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
S
c
h
o
o
ls C
lo
s
ed
(B
lu
e)
Students Affected
Schools Closed
4/28
School
dismissal
(7 days)
5/1 School
dismissal
(14 days)
5/5 School
dismissal
rescinded
Division of Global Migration and Quarantine
Novel Influenza A (H1N1) - 05 JUN 2009
School Dismissal, United States, 4/29 – 6/4, 2009
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Communications Summary
Novel Influenza A (H1N1) – 05 JUN 2009
Channel Traffic
•
Communication trends fluctuate up and down. Since 2 June:
– Web page views are
up
– Public calls, e-mails, and clinician calls to CDC-INFO
up
– Print-Internet stories slightly
up
– Twitter traffic is
flat
– Media inquiries are
flat
Major Themes
•
TV news stories dominated by local events
•
Print/Internet stories focus on:
– “Swine flu” deaths reported in WI, CA, IL
– “Barbados confirms 1st swine flu case”
– Dozens of countries banning pork imports from U.S.